- Ithiyori yomdlalo ihlaziya indlela abantu abenza ngayo izinqumo zamasu ezimweni ezihilela abadlali abaningi.
- Kuhlanganisa imiqondo ebalulekile efana ne-Nash Equilibrium, izinhlobo zemidlalo, namathuluzi afana ne-payoff matrix kanye nomuthi wesinqumo.
- Kusetshenziswa kwezomnotho, kwezepolitiki, kwebhayoloji, kanye nakwezengqondo ukuqonda kokubili ukuncintisana kanye nokubambisana.
- Naphezu kokulinganiselwa kwayo, isalokhu iyisisekelo ekuqondeni izingxabano nezivumelwano zanamuhla.
La imidlalo ithiyori Sekuyithuluzi elibaluleke kakhulu lokuhlaziya amasu nokwenza izinqumo ezimweni lapho umphumela uxhomeke kakhulu ezenzweni zomuntu siqu nasekuziphatheni kwamanye amanxusa. Nakuba kungase kuzwakale njengokuthile okuvela kumdlalo wevidiyo noma kwezokuzijabulisa, iqiniso liwukuthi ukusetshenziswa kwawo kunomthelela wangempela ezindabeni ezifana nezomnotho, ezombusazwe, i-biology, i-psychology, ngisho nokuphila kwethu kwansuku zonke, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi sizama ukuxoxisana ngokukhushulwa komholo noma ukukhetha ukuthi iyiphi indawo yokudlela okufanele siye kuyo neqembu labangane.
Akuyona into engaqondakali ukuthi omunye wezazi zezibalo ezinkulu kakhulu zekhulu lama-20, uJohn Nash, ukhunjulwa ngokukhuthaza okukhulu akunikeza lo mkhakha ngokuqonda isayensi edumile. Ukulinganisa kwe-NashUngamangala ukuthi zingaki izimo ezibonakala zilula esibhekana nazo nsuku zonke ezingahlaziywa kusetshenziswa le ndlela. Kuyo yonke le ndatshana, uzothola umbono ophelele futhi ofinyeleleka kalula wokuthi iyini imfundiso yomdlalo, imvelaphi yayo, imiqondo eyinhloko, izibonelo ezibalulekile, kanye nokubuka ukugxekwa kanye nemikhawulo yayo.
Iyini ithiyori yomdlalo?
Ngamagama ayisisekelo, i- imidlalo ithiyori Kuyigatsha lezibalo elifuna ukuqonda ukuthi ama-rational agents asebenzisana kanjani izimo lapho impumelelo yawo wonke umuntu incike kulokho abanye abakwenzayoUmhlanganyeli ngamunye—obizwa ngokuthi “umdlali”—kumele akhethe izenzo zakhe ecabangela izenzo namasu abanye abahlanganyeli angaba khona. Lokhu kusebenzisana kungathatha izindlela eziningi: kusukela ekuxoxisaneni kwebhizinisi kuya esinqumweni sezepolitiki samazwe ngamazwe noma ngisho nasemkhakheni womndeni.
Kulo mkhakha, igama elithi "umdlalo" alibhekiseli kuphela emidlalweni yebhodi noma emidlalweni yenhlanhla, kodwa kunoma yisiphi isimo esihlelekile esihilela izikhuthazo, imiphumela, kanye nabadlali abaningi abenza izinqumo. Isibonelo, ukuncintisana emakethe ukuze kudonswe amakhasimende, ukuhlanganyela ezingxoxweni zemiholo, noma ukunquma ukuthi uzosebenzisana noma uzokhaphela osebenza naye ngaphansi kwemithetho ethile konke kungahlaziywa ngokombono... imidlalo ithiyori.
Umsuka kanye nokuziphendukela kwemvelo komlando
Indawo yokuqala esemthethweni yethiyori yomdlalo iphawulwa yisazi sezibalo saseHungary uJohn von Neumann, owashicilela umsebenzi othi "Theory of Games and Economic Behavior" ngo-1944 kanye no-Oskar Morgenstern. Lezi zindlela zokuqala zazigxile kakhulu kulokho okwaziwa ngokuthi imidlalo ye-zero-sumlapho lokho omunye umenzeli akuzuzayo kanye nomunye elahlekelwa yikho, njengaku-chess noma i-poker.
Igxathu elikhulu lomqondo lafika lapho UJohn Nash —Umklomelo KaNobel Kwezomnotho ngo-1994— wethula umqondo wokuthi Ukulinganisa kwe-NashNgokungafani nemodeli ye-zero-sum, uNash ukhombisile ukuthi kunezimo eziningi lapho izenzo ezinhle zababambiqhaza zingasho ukuthi omunye uyalahlekelwa uma omunye ewina, kodwa ukuthi bobabili bangakhulisa inhlalakahle yabo noma okungenani bangabi nesisusa sokushintsha isu uma abanye bengaphumeleli.
Kusukela ngaleso sikhathi, le nkolelo-mbono iye yanda yaba amamodeli angenakubalwa aguquguqukayo, engaxazululi nje kuphela ukuncintisana (okungabambisani) kodwa futhi ukubambisanakanye nokwedlula ezomnotho ukuze kwamukelwe i-biology, isayensi yamakhompyutha, isayensi yezepolitiki, noma i-psychology.
Kungani inkolelo-mbono yomdlalo ibaluleke kangaka?
La imidlalo ithiyori Kuye kwabonakala kuyithuluzi elibalulekile lokuqonda nokulindela ukuziphatha ezimweni eziningi ezahlukene, okuvumela ukuhlaziywa kwakho konke kusukela ekuncintisaneni okukhulu phakathi kwezinkampani kanye nokwakhiwa kwezivumelwano zokuhweba, kuya ekulinganisweni kwamandla phakathi kwamazwe noma ukunyakaza kwemakethe yamasheya.
Ku-biology, uma sicaphuna omunye umkhakha, kubalulekile ekufundeni izenzakalo zokukhethwa kwemvelo lapho izinto eziphilayo zincintisana noma zibambisana ukuze ziphile. Kwezepolitiki, ngenxa yale mbono, kungenzeka ukuqonda kangcono ukudonsisana phakathi kwamaqembu aphikisanayo, ohulumeni, kanye nezingxoxo zamazwe ngamazwe. Ngisho nase-psychology kanye ne-sociology, kusenza sikwazi ukuhlola umqondo ngemuva kwezinqumo zeqembu, ukuzinikela, noma ukuncintisana phakathi kwabantu.
Imiqondo eyinhloko yethiyori yomdlalo
Ukuqonda imiqondo ebalulekile kubalulekile ekujuleni ezweni elithakazelisayo lemfundiso yomdlalo. Lapha sibuyekeza ebaluleke kakhulu:
- Isu: Empeleni uhlelo lwesenzo somdlali ngamunye ngaphakathi komdlalo, sicabangela izinketho nemiphumela engaba khona. Singahlukanisa phakathi kwamasu ahlanzekile—lapho umdlali ehlala ekhetha isenzo esifanayo—namasu axubile—lapho eshintshana khona phakathi kwezinketho ezahlukene ngamathuba ahlukahlukene.
- Ukulingana kwe-Nash: Lo mqondo, njengoba uhlongozwe nguNash, umelela isimo lapho kungekho mdlali ongathuthukisa umphumela wakhe ngokushintsha isu lakhe, uma kubhekwa lokho abanye abakwenzayo. Ngamanye amazwi, wonke umuntu wenza kahle ngokucabangela izinqumo zabanye.
- Imidlalo ye-Zero-sum: Lezi yizimo lapho ukunqoba komuntu oyedwa kufana nokunqotshwa komunye, njengase-chess noma kwezemidlalo ezithile.
- I-matrix yokukhokha: Ithuluzi eliyisisekelo lokubona ngeso lengqondo zonke izinhlanganisela zezenzo kanye nemiphumela yazo kumhlanganyeli ngamunye.
- Imidlalo elandelanayo neguquguqukayo: Lapha, abadlali abenzi lutho ngesikhathi esisodwa, kodwa kunalokho izinqumo zenziwa ngezigaba ezahlukene, lapho ukwazi ukuthi umphikisi wenzeni ngaphambili kungaba yisihluthulelo sokunquma umdlalo wakho.
- Isihlahla sesinqumo: Uhlelo olunezithombe olubonisa ngokubonakalayo izindlela ezingaba khona kanye nokukhetha emidlalweni elandelanayo, oluchaza ukuthi ezinye izindlela nemiphumela ehlukene ithuthuka kanjani.
- Ibhalansi ephelele emidlalweni engaphansi: Kuyisandiso se-Nash equilibrium yemidlalo eguquguqukayo, futhi inquma ukuthi yimaphi amasu anengqondo esigabeni ngasinye somdlalo, ilahla izinsongo ezingenangqondo.
Izinhlobo eziyinhloko zemidlalo
Ukwehlukahluka kokusetshenziswa kwethiyori yomdlalo kubonakala ezinhlotsheni ezahlukene zemidlalo efundwayo:
- Imidlalo engeyona eyokubambisana: Umdlali ngamunye ufuna inzuzo yakhe ngaphandle kokwakha ubudlelwano obuzinzile, kanti ukuncintisana okuqondile kuyisihluthulelo esiyinhloko.
- imidlalo yokubambisana: Abahlanganyeli bangahlanganisa, bakhe imifelandawonye ukuze bafeze imigomo efanayo futhi babelane ngezinzuzo.
- Imidlalo ngesikhathi esisodwa: Bonke abadlali banquma ngesikhathi esisodwa, ngaphandle kokwazi ukuthi omunye ukhetha ini.
- Imidlalo elandelanayo: Ukushintshana kwezinqumo kulandelana, ngakho-ke kukhona ulwazi mayelana nezinyathelo zangaphambilini, njengasemdlalweni we-chess noma we-chess yebhizinisi.
- Imidlalo enolwazi oluphelele noma olungaphelele: Esimweni sokuqala, wonke umlando wemidlalo ungowolwazi lomphakathi; esimweni sesibili, kukhona ukungaqiniseki noma ulwazi olungaphelele.
Izibonelo ezisebenzayo nezidumile zemfundiso yomdlalo
Ukuze kucaciswe imiqondo, kuyasiza ukusebenzisa izibonelo eziningana ezaziwayo ezivame ukusetshenziswa esifundweni semfundiso yemidlalo.
inkinga yesiboshwa
Kunzima ukukhuluma ngemfundiso yomdlalo ngaphandle kokukhuluma ngomdlalo odumile inkinga yesiboshwaAbantu ababili basolwa ngecala futhi babhekene nesilingo sokukhaphela abalingani babo noma ukuthula. Uma bobabili bethula, bathola isigwebo esincane; uma bobabili bekhaphelana, isigwebo siba sibi kakhulu; uma oyedwa kuphela evuma kanti omunye ethula, umphikisi uyakhululeka kanti omunye uthola isigwebo esiphezulu. Ukuhlakanipha kubikezela ukuthi bobabili bazovuma, yize ukubambisana kungaba ngcono kubo bobabili. Lesi sibonelo sibonisa ukuthi izinqumo ezinengqondo zomuntu ngamunye zingaholela kanjani emiphumeleni engemihle eqenjini..
Inkinga yeMonty Hall
Ngokusekelwe ohlelweni lwethelevishini, umncintiswano kumele akhethe phakathi kweminyango emithathu. Umphathi wemidlalo wembula omunye weminyango ongenawo umklomelo futhi unikeza ithuba lokushintsha. Ukuhlaziya le nkinga ngokwezibalo kubonisa ukuthi kunenzuzo ukushintsha ukukhetha komuntu, iqiniso abaningi abalilahla ekuqaleni ngokusekelwe ekuqondeni. Lesi sibonelo sisiza ukuqonda ukucwasa kwengqondo kanye nokungenzeka ekwenzeni izinqumo.
Imodeli ye-hawk-dove
Lolu cwaningo luhlola ingxabano phakathi kwabadlali abangakhetha phakathi kwesu lobudlova (ukhozi) noma lokuthula (ijuba). Uma bobabili benobudlova, bobabili bayahlulwa; uma bobabili bebambisana, bobabili bayawina; uma omunye ebambisana kanti omunye enobudlova, umdlali onobudlova uyawina. Lokhu kusetshenziswa kabanzi emasu ezempi nasezingxoxweni zezepolitiki. Isihluthulelo ukubikezela ukuziphatha komphikisi bese unquma ngesimo esizothuthukisa imiphumela..
Imidlalo yezentengiselwano kanye nokuncintisana kwebhizinisi
Ithiyori yemidlalo nayo ibonakale ibalulekile ekuncintisaneni phakathi kwezinkampani. Isibonelo, izinkampani ezimbili kumele zinqume ukuthi zehlise amanani noma cha: uma zombili ziwanciphisa, inzuzo iyancipha; uma eyodwa kuphela iwanciphisa, ithola isabelo semakethe ngokulimaza enye; uma zombili ziwanciphisa, zombili zilondoloza inzuzo. Lezi zindlela zinquma amasu emakethe, ukuma komkhiqizo, kanye nemikhankaso yokukhangisa..
Imidlalo enamandla enezigaba eziningi
Ezimweni eziyinkimbinkimbi, njengezingxabano zesikhathi eside phakathi kwamazwe noma izinkampani, izinqumo zenziwa ngezigaba eziningana. Abadlali kumele balindele izimpendulo zesikhathi esizayo zabaphikisi babo ngaphambi kokuthatha isinyathelo. Yilapho okulandelayo kusetshenziswa khona kaningi: isihlahla sesinqumo ukuchaza izinketho nemiphumela. Isibonelo, uma izwe elilodwa linquma ukuhlasela elinye, leli lizwe lingakhetha ukuzinikela noma ukuziphindiselela, futhi umphumela uncike ochungechungeni lwezinqumo (bheka imininingwane eyengeziwe nezibonelo ku I-CeCo).
Kuyini ukufundisa: incazelo, umlando, amagatsha namathuluzi ayisihluthulelo
Ukugxekwa kanye nokulinganiselwa kwemfundiso yomdlalo
Naphezu kwempumelelo yayo enkulu kanye nokusetshenziswa kwayo kabanzi, Ithiyori yemidlalo nayo ithole ukugxekwa:
- Ukwenza kube lula ngokweqile: Amamodeli amaningi acabanga ukuthi abadlali bahlala benza ngendlela enengqondo futhi bayayazi yonke imithetho, okuyinto engavamile ukwenzeka ngokoqobo.
- Ukushoda komongo: Ithiyori ivame ukunganaki imininingwane yomlando, yamasiko, kanye neyomzwelo engathonya ngokuphelele ukuziphatha kwabantu.
- Izibikezelo ezingacacile: Kweminye imidlalo, kuvezwa ukulingana okuhlukile okungenzeka, futhi inkolelo-mbono ayibonisi njalo ukuthi yimuphi ozokwenzeka ekusebenzeni.
- Ukugcizelelwa kokucabanga komuntu ngamunye: Ngokuvamile imodeli ayicabangi ukwethembana, ukwethembeka, noma izisusa zokuzinikela noma ezisekelwe ekubambisaneni.
Kuvame ukugcizelelwa ukuthi, nakuba kuvumela ukwakheka kwezinkinga, Ukubikezela ngqo ukuthi umuntu ngamunye uzokwenzenjani akunakwenzeka.Ngoba asivamile ukusabela ngendlela enengqondo ngokuphelele—izici ezingokomzwelo, okuhlangenwe nakho kwesikhathi esidlule, noma ithuba elilula konke kudlala indima. Naphezu kwalokhu, inkolelo-mbono yomdlalo isalokhu iwuhlaka olubalulekile lwendlela yokuqonda izingxabano eziyinkimbinkimbi, izingxoxo, kanye nezivumelwano.
Ukusetshenziswa kwemfundiso yemidlalo namuhla
Namuhla, akekho ongabaza ukuthi inkolelo-mbono yomdlalo idlule imingcele yezemfundo ukuze isetshenziswe ezindaweni ezibalulekile:
- Umnotho: Inquma izinqubomgomo zamanani, izindali zomphakathi, amasu emakethe, kanye nokuziphatha kwabathengi.
- Inqubomgomo yamazwe ngamazwe: Ohulumeni bakha izingxoxo, imifelandawonye, kanye nezivumelwano ngokucabangela ukusabela namasu amanye amazwe.
- Ibhayoloji yokuziphendukela kwemvelo: Isetshenziselwa ukuhlaziya amasu okusinda phakathi kwezinhlobo eziphikisanayo noma ezisebenzisanayo.
- Ubuchwepheshe kanye nobuhlakani bokwenziwa: Onjiniyela bahlela ama-algorithm ukuze benze izinqumo ezifanele maqondana namanye ama-ejenti ezinhlelweni eziyinkimbinkimbi.
- I-psychology yezenhlalo kanye nokuziphatha: Kuvumela ukuqonda okujulile kwezisusa zomuntu ngamunye nezeqembu, ukuhlola ukubambisana, izingxabano, kanye nokuziphatha kokuzinikela.
Iqiniso liwukuthi, hhayi nje kuphela embonweni ongabonakali, imidlalo ithiyori Inendima yayo ezingxoxweni zamanje, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi sikhuluma ngezingxoxo zezikweletu zamazwe ngamazwe (isibonelo, icala laseGrisi), amanani ezitolo ezinkulu, noma ngisho nezinkundla zokuthandana eziku-inthanethi. Inethonya elikhulu kunalokho ongakucabanga!
Ngemva kwalokhu kubuyekezwa okuphelele komlando, izisekelo, amamodeli, kanye nokugxekwa, kusobala ukuthi imidlalo ithiyori Kungaphezu kakhulu kwezibalo eziyinkimbinkimbi noma amamodeli ezibalo. Kuwuhlaka olunamandla lomqondo lokuqonda ukuncintisana nokubambisana kuzo zonke izici zokuphila kwanamuhla. Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi kuhlaziya izingxabano phakathi kwezinkampani ezinkulu noma ukuqonda ukuthi kungani abangane ababili benquma ukwabelana noma ukungabelani ingxenye yokugcina ye-pizza ephathini, le mbono isinikeza amathuluzi okuhlola i-logic—kanye nothando—ngemuva kokukhetha kwethu. Futhi nakuba ukuziphatha kwabantu kuvame ukungabikezeleki, imidlalo ithiyori Izoqhubeka nokuba yikhampasi yobuhlakani esetshenziswa osomnotho, izazi zokusebenza kwengqondo, osopolitiki, nanoma ubani onesifiso sokuqonda kangcono umhlaba wezinqumo ezincikene.