Ithiyori yomdlalo: yintoni, yintoni, kunye nemizekelo esetyenzisiweyo

La ithiyori yemidlalo Ibe sisixhobo esibaluleke kakhulu ekuhlalutyeni amaqhinga nokwenza izigqibo kwiimeko apho isiphumo sixhomekeke kakhulu kwizenzo zomntu kunye nokuziphatha kwabanye abameli. Nangona isenokuvakala ngathi yinto ephuma kumdlalo wevidiyo okanye ukuzonwabisa, inyani kukuba usetyenziso lwayo lunempembelelo yokwenyani kwimiba efana nezoqoqosho, ezopolitiko, i-biology, isayikholoji, kwanobomi bethu bemihla ngemihla, nokuba sizama ukuxoxisana ngokunyuswa komvuzo okanye sikhetha ukuba yeyiphi indawo yokutyela esiza kuya kuyo neqela labahlobo.

Akuyonto ingaqhelekanga ukuba omnye wezazi zezibalo ezibalaseleyo zenkulungwane yama-20, uJohn Nash, akhunjulwe ngenkxaso yakhe enkulu kule nkalo ngokucinga ngembali edumileyo. Nash equilibriumUngamangaliswa kukuba zingaphi iimeko ezibonakala zilula esidibana nazo imihla ngemihla ezinokuhlalutywa kusetyenziswa le ndlela. Kuyo yonke le nqaku, uza kufumana umbono opheleleyo nofikelelekayo wokuba yintoni ithiyori yomdlalo, imvelaphi yayo, iingcamango eziphambili, imizekelo ebalulekileyo, kunye nokujonga ukugxekwa kwayo kunye nemida yayo.

Yintoni ithiyori yomdlalo?

Ngokwentsingiselo esisiseko, ithiyori yemidlalo Lisebe lezibalo elifuna ukuqonda indlela iiarhente ezisebenzisa ingqondo ezisebenzisana ngayo iimeko apho impumelelo yomntu wonke ixhomekeke kwinto eyenziwa ngabanyeUmthathi-nxaxheba ngamnye—obizwa ngokuba “ngumdlali”—kufuneka akhethe izenzo zakhe ecinga ngezenzo ezinokwenzeka kunye namaqhinga abanye abathathi-nxaxheba. Olu nxibelelwano lunokuthatha iindlela ezininzi: ukusuka kwingxoxo yeshishini ukuya kwisigqibo sezopolitiko samazwe ngamazwe okanye nakwintshukumo yosapho.

Kule nkalo, igama elithi "umdlalo" alibhekiseli kuphela kwimidlalo yebhodi okanye kwimidlalo yethamsanqa, kodwa nakweyiphi na imeko ecwangcisiweyo ebandakanya izikhuthazo, iziphumo, kunye nabadlali abaninzi abenza izigqibo. Umzekelo, ukukhuphisana kwimarike ukutsala abathengi, ukubandakanyeka kwiingxoxo zemivuzo, okanye ukugqiba ekubeni usebenzisane okanye ungcatshe umntu osebenza naye phantsi kwemithetho ethile konke oku kunokuhlaziywa ngokwembono... ithiyori yemidlalo.

Imvelaphi kunye nembali yendaleko

Indawo yokuqala ngokusesikweni yethiyori yomdlalo iphawulwa yingcali yezibalo yaseHungary uJohn von Neumann, owathi, kunye no-Oskar Morgenstern, bapapasha umsebenzi othi "Theory of Games and Economic Behavior" ngo-1944. Ezi ndlela zokuqala zazigxile kakhulu kwizinto ezaziwa ngokuba imidlalo ye-zero-sumapho oko iarhente ikuzuzayo kanye kanye omnye elahlekelwa kuko, njengakwichess okanye kwipoker.

Ingxunya enkulu yengcinga yenzeke xa John nash —Ibhaso likaNobel kwizoQoqosho ngo-1994— lazisa ingcamango Nash equilibriumNgokungafaniyo nomzekelo we-zero-sum, uNash ubonise ukuba kukho iimeko ezininzi apho izenzo ezilungileyo zabathathi-nxaxheba zingathethi ukuba omnye uyaphulukana ukuba omnye uyaphumelela, kodwa bobabini banokuphucula impilo-ntle yabo okanye ubuncinane bangabi nasizathu sokutshintsha icebo ukuba abanye abaphumeleli.

Ukususela ngoko, le ngcamango iye yanda yaba ziimodeli ezingenakubalwa eziguquguqukayo, ezingajongani nje kuphela nokhuphiswano (olungenantsebenziswano) kodwa ukusebenzisanakwaye sidlule kwezoqoqosho size simkele ibhayoloji, isayensi yekhompyutha, isayensi yezopolitiko, okanye isayikholoji.

Kutheni le nto ithiyori yomdlalo ibaluleke kangaka?

La ithiyori yemidlalo Ibonakalise ukuba sisixhobo esibalulekileyo sokuqonda nokulindela ukuziphatha kwiimeko ezahlukeneyo, ivumela uhlalutyo lwento yonke ukusuka kukhuphiswano oluqatha phakathi kweenkampani kunye nokwakhiwa kwezivumelwano zorhwebo, ukuya kumlinganiselo wamandla phakathi kwamazwe okanye iintshukumo zemarike yesitokhwe.

Kwibhayoloji, ukukhankanya enye intsimi, kubalulekile ekufundeni izinto ezibangela ukukhethwa kwendalo apho izinto eziphilayo zikhuphisana okanye zisebenzisana ukuze ziphile. Kwezopolitiko, ngenxa yale ngcamango, kunokwenzeka ukuqonda ngcono ukutsalana phakathi kwamaqela akhuphisanayo, oorhulumente, kunye neengxoxo zamazwe ngamazwe. Kwanakwisayikholoji nakwisosioloji, isenza sikwazi ukuhlola ingqiqo engasemva kwezigqibo zamaqela, ububele, okanye ukhuphiswano phakathi kwabantu.

Iingcamango eziphambili zethiyori yomdlalo

Ukuqonda iingcamango ezibalulekileyo kubalulekile ekujongeni nzulu kwihlabathi elinomtsalane lethiyori yomdlalo. Apha sijonga ezona zibalulekileyo:

• Icebo: Ngokusisiseko yisicwangciso sesenzo somdlali ngamnye ngaphakathi komdlalo, sicinga ngeendlela ezinokwenzeka kunye neziphumo. Singahlula phakathi kwamaqhinga acocekileyo—apho umdlali esoloko ekhetha isenzo esifanayo—kunye namaqhinga axutyiweyo—apho atshintshana khona phakathi kweendlela ezahlukeneyo ezinamathuba ahlukeneyo.
• Ukulingana kweNash: Le ngcamango, njengoko icetyiswe nguNash, imele imeko apho kungekho mdlali unokuphucula iziphumo zakhe ngokutshintsha nje icebo lakhe, xa kujongwa oko abanye bakwenzayo. Ngamanye amazwi, wonke umntu wenza ngcono ngokuqwalasela izigqibo zabanye.
• Imidlalo yeZero-sum: Ezi ziimeko apho uloyiso lomntu omnye lufana nokoyiswa komnye, njengakwichess okanye kwimidlalo ethile.
• Imatriki yentlawulo: Isixhobo esisisiseko sokubona zonke iindlela ezinokwenzeka zokudibanisa izenzo kunye nemiphumo yazo kumthathi-nxaxheba ngamnye.
• Imidlalo elandelelanayo neguquguqukayo: Apha, abadlali abenzi nto ngaxeshanye, kodwa izigqibo zenziwa ngamanqanaba ahlukeneyo, apho ukwazi oko umchasi akwenzileyo ngaphambili kunokuba ngundoqo ekukhetheni umdlalo wakho.
• Umthi wesigqibo: Isicwangciso semizobo esibonisa ngokubonakalayo iindlela ezinokwenzeka kunye nokukhetha kwimidlalo elandelelanayo, ecacisa indlela iindlela ezahlukeneyo kunye neziphumo eziphuhliswa ngayo.
• Ibhalansi egqibeleleyo kwimidlalo engaphantsi: Lulwandiso lwe-Nash equilibrium kwimidlalo eguquguqukayo, kwaye lugqiba ukuba zeziphi iindlela ezifanelekileyo kwisigaba ngasinye somdlalo, lulahla izoyikiso ezingenakwenzeka.

Iintlobo eziphambili zemidlalo

Ulwahlulo lweendlela zokusetyenziswa kwethiyori yomdlalo lubonakala kwiintlobo ezahlukeneyo zemidlalo efundwayo:

• Imidlalo engeyiyo yentsebenziswano: Umdlali ngamnye ufuna inzuzo yakhe ngaphandle kokwakha ubudlelwane obuzinzileyo, apho ukhuphiswano oluthe ngqo luphambili.
• imidlalo yentsebenziswano: Abathathi-nxaxheba banokuququzelela, benze amaqela omanyano ukuze bafezekise iinjongo ezifanayo baze babelane ngeenzuzo.
• Imidlalo ngaxeshanye: Bonke abadlali bathatha isigqibo ngaxeshanye, bengazi ukuba omnye ukhetha ntoni.
• Imidlalo elandelelanayo: Ukutshintshana kwezigqibo kulandelana, ngoko ke kukho ulwazi malunga namanyathelo angaphambili, njengakumdlalo wechess okanye ichess yeshishini.
• Imidlalo enolwazi olugqibeleleyo okanye olungaphelelanga: Kwimeko yokuqala, yonke imbali yemidlalo iyaziwa luluntu; kwimeko yesibini, kukho ukungaqiniseki okanye ulwazi olungaphelelanga.

Imizekelo esebenzayo nedumileyo yethiyori yomdlalo

Ukuze kucaciswe iingcamango, kuyanceda ukusebenzisa imizekelo emininzi eyaziwayo esetyenziswa rhoqo ekufundeni ithiyori yomdlalo.

ingxaki yamabanjwa

Kunzima ukuthetha ngethiyori yomdlalo ngaphandle kokukhankanya edumileyo ingxaki yamabanjwaAbantu ababini batyholwa ngolwaphulo-mthetho kwaye bajongene nesilingo sokungcatsha amaqabane abo okanye bathule. Ukuba bobabini bathule, bafumana isigwebo esincinci; ukuba bobabini bangcatsha omnye komnye, isigwebo siba nzima ngakumbi; ukuba omnye kuphela uyavuma aze omnye athule, umntu okrwada uyakhululeka kwaye omnye ufumana isigwebo esiphezulu. Ingqiqo iqikelela ukuba bobabini baya kuvuma, nangona intsebenziswano ingcono kubo bobabini. Lo mzekelo ubonisa indlela izigqibo zomntu ngamnye ezinengqondo ezinokukhokelela ngayo kwiziphumo ezingezizo ezilungileyo kwiqela..

Ingxaki yeMonty Hall

Ngokusekelwe kwinkqubo kamabonakude, umntu okhuphisanayo kufuneka akhethe phakathi kweengcango ezintathu. Umphathi weqonga utyhila enye yeengcango ezingenabhaso aze anike ithuba lokutshintsha. Ukuhlalutya le ngxaki ngokwezibalo kubonisa ukuba kuyingenelo ukutshintsha ukhetho lomntu, into abaninzi abayigatyayo ekuqaleni ngenxa yokuziva. Lo mzekelo unceda ukuqonda ucalucalulo olungokwengqondo nolunokwenzeka xa kusenziwa izigqibo.

Imodeli yehawk-dove

Olu phononongo luhlola ingxabano phakathi kwabadlali abanokukhetha phakathi kweqhinga lobundlobongela (ihawk) okanye elinoxolo (ihobe). Ukuba bobabini banobundlobongela, bobabini bayaphulukana; ukuba bobabini bayasebenzisana, bobabini bayaphumelela; ukuba omnye uyasebenzisana kwaye omnye unobundlobongela, umdlali onobundlobongela uyaphumelela. Oku kusetyenziswa kakhulu kwizicwangciso zomkhosi kunye neengxoxo zezopolitiko. Eyona nto ibalulekileyo kukulindela indlela umchasi aziphethe ngayo uze uthathe isigqibo malunga nendlela yokuma eya kuphucula iziphumo..

Imidlalo yorhwebo kunye nokhuphiswano lweshishini

Ithiyori yomdlalo ikwabonakalise ukuba ibalulekile kukhuphiswano phakathi kweenkampani. Umzekelo, iinkampani ezimbini kufuneka zigqibe kwelokuba zehlise amaxabiso okanye zingawahlisi: ukuba zombini ziyawahlisa, inzuzo iyancipha; ukuba enye kuphela iyawanciphisa, ifumana isabelo semarike ngendleko yenye; ukuba akukho nanye kwezi, zombini ziyawagcina enenzuzo. Ezi ndlela zilawula amaqhinga emarike, indawo ebekwe kuyo imveliso, kunye neephulo zokuthengisa..

Imidlalo enamandla enezigaba ezininzi

Kwiimeko ezinzima, ezifana neengxabano zexesha elide phakathi kwamazwe okanye iinkampani, izigqibo zenziwa ngamanqanaba aliqela. Abadlali kufuneka balindele iimpendulo ezinokubakho zexesha elizayo zabachasi babo ngaphambi kokuba benze into ethile. Kulapho oku kulandelayo kusetyenziswa khona rhoqo: umthi wesigqibo ukuchaza iindlela kunye neziphumo. Umzekelo, ukuba elinye ilizwe ligqiba ekubeni lihlasele elinye, elo lamva lingakhetha ukuzinikela okanye ukuziphindezela, kwaye isiphumo sixhomekeke kuluhlu lwezigqibo (jonga iinkcukacha ezingaphezulu kunye nemizekelo kwi I-CeCo).

Yintoni i-pedagogy: intsingiselo, imbali, amasebe kunye nezixhobo eziphambili

Ukugxekwa kunye nemida yethiyori yomdlalo

Nangona iphumelele kakhulu kwaye isetyenziswa ngokubanzi, Ithiyori yomdlalo nayo ifumene ukugxekwa:

• Ukwenza kube lula kakhulu: Iimodeli ezininzi zicinga ukuba abadlali basoloko besenza ngendlela enengqondo ngokupheleleyo kwaye bayayazi yonke imithetho, into engaqhelekanga ukuba yenzeke ngokwenene.
• Ukunqongophala komxholo: Ithiyori idla ngokungazinanzi iinkcukacha zembali, zenkcubeko, nezeemvakalelo ezinokuchaphazela ngokupheleleyo indlela abantu abaziphatha ngayo.
• Izibikezelo ezingacacanga: Kweminye imidlalo, kuboniswa ukulingana okuhlukeneyo okunokwenzeka, kwaye ithiyori ayisoloko ibonisa ukuba yeyiphi eza kwenzeka xa kusenziwa.
• Ugxininiso kwingqiqo yomntu ngamnye: Idla ngokuba le modeli ayithathi ngqalelo ukuthembana, ukunyaniseka, okanye izizathu zobubele okanye zomanyano.

Kwakhona kudla ngokugxininiswa ukuba, nangona ivumela ulwakhiwo lweengxaki, Ukuqikelela ngokuthe ngqo into eza kwenziwa ngumntu ngamnye akunakwenzeka.Kuba asisoloko sisabele ngendlela ecacileyo—iimeko zeemvakalelo, amava adlulileyo, okanye ithuba nje zonke zidlala indima. Nangona kunjalo, ithiyori yomdlalo isalokhu isisiseko sendlela yokuqonda iingxabano ezinzima, iingxoxo kunye nezivumelwano.

Ukusetyenziswa kwethiyori yomdlalo namhlanje

Namhlanje, akukho mntu uthandabuzayo ukuba ithiyori yomdlalo idlule imida yezemfundo ukuze isetyenziswe kwiindawo eziphambili:

• Uqoqosho: Imisela imigaqo-nkqubo yamaxabiso, iifandesi zikawonke-wonke, amaqhinga emarike, kunye nokuziphatha kwabathengi.
• Umgaqo-nkqubo wamazwe ngamazwe: Oorhulumente babumba iingxoxo, imibutho, kunye nezivumelwano ngokuqwalasela iimpendulo kunye namaqhinga amanye amazwe.
• Ibhayoloji yokuzivelela kwezinto: Isetyenziselwa ukuhlalutya amaqhinga okusinda phakathi kweentlobo ezikhuphisanayo okanye ezisebenzisanayo.
• Ubuchwepheshe kunye nobukrelekrele bokwenziwa: Abaphuhlisi beenkqubo ze-algorithms ukuze benze izigqibo ezifanelekileyo ngokunxulumene nezinye iiarhente kwiinkqubo ezintsonkothileyo.
• Ingqondo yentlalo kunye nokuziphatha: Ivumela ukuqonda okunzulu ngezizathu zomntu ngamnye kunye neqela, ukuvavanya intsebenziswano, iingxabano, kunye nokuziphatha okunobubele.

Inyaniso kukuba, kunokuba ipheleliswe kwithiyori engabonakaliyo, ithiyori yemidlalo Inendawo yayo kwiingxoxo zangoku, nokuba sithetha ngeengxoxo zamatyala zamazwe ngamazwe (umzekelo, ityala laseGrisi), amaxabiso eevenkile ezinkulu, okanye kwanamaqonga okuthandana kwi-intanethi. Inempembelelo engaphezulu kunokuba unokucinga!

Emva kolu phononongo lupheleleyo lwembali, iziseko, iimodeli, kunye nohlalutyo, kuyacaca ukuba ithiyori yemidlalo Ingaphezulu kakhulu kunee-equation ezintsonkothileyo okanye iimodeli zezibalo. Sisakhelo esinamandla sengcamango sokuqonda ukhuphiswano kunye nentsebenziswano kuzo zonke iinkalo zobomi banamhlanje. Nokuba kuhlalutywa iingxabano phakathi kwezikhulu zeenkampani okanye ukuqonda isizathu sokuba abahlobo ababini bagqibe ekubeni babelane okanye bangabelani ngesilayi sokugqibela sepizza ethekweni, le ngcamango isinika izixhobo zokuhlola ingqiqo—kunye nomdla—ongasemva kokukhetha kwethu. Kwaye nangona ukuziphatha kwabantu kudla ngokungaqikeleli, ithiyori yemidlalo Iza kuqhubeka iyikhampasi yobukrelekrele esetyenziswa ziingcali zezoqoqosho, iingcali zengqondo, abezopolitiko, kunye naye nabani na onomdla wokuqonda ngcono ihlabathi lezigqibo ezixhomekeke kwenye.